I need you to write a 1-pager discussion post to answer all the questions in the prompt below. use at least 2 peer-reviewed resources (with URLs, APA 7th) to back up your arguments:

Prompt: Suppose that monthly data on some time series variable exhibits a clear upward trend but no seasonality. You decide to use moving averages, with any appropriate span. 

• Explain what systematic bias is in your own words.

• Provide your reasoning for using moving averages in a situation like this.

• Will there tend to be a systematic bias in your forecasts?

• Justify your answer, why or why not.

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