Formatting:
12 font, 1 margins, double-spacing, section headers acceptable Total length: Between 2.5-3.5 pages (of course, longer and more detailed is acceptable!)
PLEASE USE ATTACHED LITERATURE REVIEW AND RESEARCH PROPOSAL (VOTING METHODS IN THE UNITED STATES)
INSTRUCTIONS (ATTACHED AS WELL)
Research Project Part III: Data and Analysis Plan
Part I
State Your Hypothesis
Now that you have developed your introduction and literature review, you can turn to your theory, arguments, and hypotheses. Here, you will need to form a testable hypothesis (or more than one, depending on your project) which unambiguously states your independent and dependent variables and the nature of the relationship between them. See the format below:
Example:
Hypothesis: In a comparison of countries, those with higher numbers of women in parliament are more likely to pass laws criminalizing domestic violence.
Independent Variable: number of women in parliament
Dependent variable: passage rate of anti-domestic violence legislation
Relationship: Positive.
Please note the following examples of improperly and properly formatted hypotheses:
Improper:
H1: There is a strong relationship between US economic conditions and the likelihood of US use of force.
– This is too vague to qualify as a hypothesis hypotheses need specificity and direction to indicate causal relationships.
H2: In a test of the idea of diversionary conflict, I expect that behavior of theoretical targets of US diversionary conflict changes depending on the strength of the US economy.
– Again, this is too vague to be an effective hypothesis, as it does not give a directional cause-and-effect statement. This is closer to a thesis statement.
Proper:
H1: US presidents are more likely to deploy troops overseas during periods of economic contraction than during times of economic growth.
– This serves as a properly formatted hypothesis, with an independent variable (level of economic growth) affecting a dependent variable (troop deployments), with a causal direction (poor economic conditions increase the likelihood of overseas troop deployments).
H2: Prospective targets of US diversionary conflict are more likely to cooperate with the US when the US economy is performing poorly than when economic conditions are good.
– This hypothesis is also correctly formatted, indicating a causal relationship between an independent variable (condition of the US economy) and a dependent variable (activity of diversionary conflict targets), and the direction of the relationship (bad US economies increase cooperation by targets).
Part II
Present your Arguments
You are writing an original research paper, so this is the place to make a strong, persuasive argument. Explain why you believe the causal relationship you are investigating exists in the way you argue. Here, you will write an explanation which presents the arguments underlying your hypothesis or hypotheses. You may consider borrowing from your Introduction for this section. What is the causal linkage between your independent and dependent variables? In what way does changes in your independent variable lead to changes in your dependent variable? This section should consist of one to two pages.
Part III
Rival Explanations
Now, you will consider alternative explanations for your relationship of interest. What else, besides your independent variable, could lead to the same changes in your dependent variable? What other causal pathway(s) could exist which link your independent and dependent variables? For instance, we know that government repression can help explain why civil war occurs, but we also know that civil wars are more likely to break out in places where rebel financing is feasible both are legitimate explanations for civil war supported by data. Going through this process demonstrates that you are taking a holistic and cautious approach to your research question and argument. You need not list every possible alternative explanation out there (the kitchen sink method) but consider those few which appear to be MOST relevant and should be accounted for in this type of research. You may want to reflect on some findings from your Lit Review when considering rival explanations which seem most critical. You should also offer a defense for your own arguments explain why you feel your causal explanation is worthy of consideration relative to the rival explanations you note, and how you plan to account for rival explanations in your analysis. This section should consist of one to two pages.
Part IV
Identifying Intervening and Control Variables
Now that you have described relevant rival explanations, chose at least two variables that you believe might be intervening (meditator) or antecedent (common cause) variables (be wary of overcontrolling!) based on these alternative explanations, and identify the role they play (you need not create a diagram to do this part).
Example:
Higher educational attainment (independent variable) leads to a greater sense of civic duty (intervening variable), which increases the likelihood of voting (dependent variable).
Educational Attainment Sense of Civic Duty Decision to Vote.
(independent variable) (intervening variable) (dependent variable)
Part V Data and Methodology:
Lastly, write a one-half to one full page Data and Methodology section. This should introduce the methods you will be using to test your overall argument and hypothesis. This should indicate if you are using a quantitative, qualitative, or mixed methods approach; the specific type of analysis used (case study, comparative case study, cross-tabulation, regression analysis, etc.); and the data sources that you will use (ex: original survey data, interviews/focus groups, journal articles, newspaper articles, legislative votes/speeches, full observational datasets, etc.). Explain your reasoning behind choosing the methods, analyses, and data sources that you have why are these the best ways to test your argument/hypotheses?
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